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Winston G Adams's avatar

A summer bonus, say Ed ...........WHAT SUMMER, especially on the Avalon?

This cold damp weather, (some of which BC would wish for), is expected to break on August 13, when 21 C is forecast.

In 2015, the same pattern, no summer until August 13, when we started to get summer! A fluke? An 11 year span, to the month and maybe the day plus or minus, if the forecast for next week is accurate.

The solar cycle is 11 years when solar spot intensity reaches it max, and we get more "Northern (and southern lights, at the south pole) with all the colours, due to interaction with the earth's protective magnetic field.

For our power grid, this induces GICs (Geomagnetic Induced Currents), about 48 hour after a CME(Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun. It can quickly destroy the massive power transformers on our power grid, from direct currents from the earth. Corner Brook area is one hot spot for that.

In 1989 this destroyed some power assets as far as New Jersey , via HQ's system being affected from CFs o to the USA. HQ has spent billions to counter that since 1989.

Conception Bay is another hot spot, where Soldiers Pond is connected to a grounding grid at the sea. There are protection schemes that are good but not perfect, as harmonics can trick the sensors.

When we get a trip on the LIL deemed "not to be a GIG cause" , but no report of the actual cause, it can be an harmonic event, so yes a GIC event that contributes to the LIL unreliability of only 95 % when and over 99% reliability is desirable .

GICs is a well know "solar weather event" for many power systems.... all are electrical connected from the solar flare, 93 million miles away, when headed in our direction. These events known since the 1800s, then impacting the cables across the Atlantic from Nfld, a biggie event in 1859.

But what of earth weather events?

The "stalling" jet streams are now causing longer periods of heat domes one area, or wet and heavy rain in another area, connected to climate change and burning fossil fuels.

Whose afraid of the Super El Nino?

Last one in 2015 and one now developing for 2026, 11 years later. Expected it may push the avg temp rise past the 1.5 C of the Paris Climate limit, maybe this year, and next year likely will be worse.

This event may be a "shot across the bow" as to impacts, not just the Pacific, but world wide, some areas much more than others.

The Avalon, a special area, is on the edge of two major climate issues, the AMOC .........the current has dropped 15 % in recent decades. And the COLD BLOB , (a relatively new discovery ) a huge cold spot in the ocean, off southern Greenland, helping feed the Labrador current with extra cold water. This affecting the weather, especially on the Avalon, as to weather, and ocean temperature and fisheries.

El Nino, a Spanish term .....look up the meaning.....dating from Peru in the 1600s.

Weather is always a interesting subject, that even politics now can influence. Maybe boring to many.

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