More than 1700 people turned out for Monday’s advance poll in Conception Bay East-Bell Island’s by-election.
There were only 551 advance ballots in the 2010 Conception Bay East - Bell Island by-election with another 105 coming via Special Ballot.
That 1700-odd is way ahead of the typical advance vote turnout in a general election but it’s in line with recent tight races - Windsor Lake, Topsail Paradise, for example - where 1,439 and 1,115 people turned out in advance polls, respectively.
The final turnout in those races was under 50% of eligible voters and those advance votes were a key part of the final result. Those advance polls in Topsail Paradise and Windsor Lake were roughly 30% of the total votes cast. In Mount Pearl North, about 4400 voters turned out in total, with a little over 1,000 of them casting early ballots.
Conception Bay East - Bell Island is potentially some sort of record for advance turnout. We’ll have to see what the final is.
There’s no way of knowing how those votes broke out by party as it is a secret ballot and even the three parties running candidates cannot tell with absolute certainty how the people they drove to the polls actually voted.
The only thing anyone can say with any certainty is that the Pea Seas and Liberals are pouring everything they have into the fight on the ground. The stakes are high. Inadvertently, this has become one of the most important elections in recent provincial political history.
A loss for Andrew Furey would be a major setback for him and would almost certainly delay the expected general election this year. Furey has no opposition to speak of so he should handily win the by-election with his star candidate. Should win but maybe won’t. Given he hand-picked the candidate and it's the riding in which he lives, Furey has more at stake here than usual and maybe more than he should.
Equally, a defeat for newly minted Pea Sea leader Tony Wakeham in what was widely perceived as a safe Tory seat would wound him and his team badly heading into a general election. It’s been Pea Sea for 20 years, held first by Diane Whelan and then by David Brazil. Wakeham’s hand-picked candidate needs to win to save Tony’s bacon.
More than 1700 advanced votes is a sure sign that both major parties are working hard to win this seat. The New Democrat would appear to be a name on a ballot.
Counting Day and the last date to cast a ballot is January 29.
I'm not sure I agree that this should be an easy win. It's not a PC stronghold like Ferryland or Cape St. Francis, but it leans blue and has been held by them for ages. I also think it will be close though, especially with an independent spoiler in the race who will peel away some PC votes. Both parties have a lot riding on it, but the PCs have more to lose.