He said "yes" to far less

Tony Wakeham edition

“I’m focused on making sure that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, that our future and the future generations after us , will have an opportunity to perhaps sit back and say that we got it right, we took our time, we did it right and we can show that.” Tony Wakeham, announcing the MOU review. Image: VOCM

Politics is about power.

Power is about control.

Newfoundland and Labrador is not in control of Churchill Falls.

Premier Tony Wakeham, like Premier Andrew Furey before him and Premier John Hogan after that, is not even in control of information about the deal. All news has come from Quebec. Wakeham could not even control announcement of the final agreements, just like Furey was never in control of when the talks started or what they were about.

Wakeham did not announce the deal. He could only fib about it when reporters asked him of news from Quebec. Everyone knew he was fibbing since the pattern set by Furey in 2023 has held true every time. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians learn about what is going on in their province from Mainlanders, in this case in Montreal. By the time Wakeham’s official news release dropped on Saturday of all days, we knew what he would say about everything that mattered, which was nothing.

Instead, Wakeham, like Furey and Hogan before him, will talk about stuff that doesn’t matter. Like a break on electricity rates in exchange for not having a referendum. Or another project on top of the existing projects and wild promises of riches, none of which are guaranteed to happen.

Power matters.

Control matters.

Everything else is bullshit.

Bullshit is Jonathan Rowe, since last year a Con Member of Parliament Jfrom Newfoundland in the House of Commons.

“My colleague from the other side mentioned Churchill Falls,” said Rowe.

“I am really looking forward to seeing what the proposal is for that, and hopefully we will see a transmission line that goes all the way to Labrador.”

A transmission line from Labrador.

Not a new one.

But a line, implicitly the first one.

Apparently since 1969, Hydro-Quebec has been using magic transmission lasers and glowing conductor ponies to get all that electricity from Labrador to Quebec and on to the United States, collecting in the process 92% of the rent from a project it doesn’t own in a territory it does not own either, but now will control.

No wonder some in Quebec are already saying this deal is reparation for the 1927 border decision that legally gave Labrador to Newfoundland, not Quebec. This deal gives Quebec control, repeats the fundamental mistake not of 1969 but of 1975 and every year since 1998.

Bullshit is Ron Penney, ex-deputy justice minister in the ‘80s, one of the staunch critics of this Churchill Falls deal and the Muskrat Falls mess before it. Penney told the Ceeb’s content assemblers that being able to send electricity from Labrador to anywhere else - that is, something Newfoundland and Labrador has been able to do since 1998 - “would be a big, a big change, no question, and very advantageous to us.”

Claiming credit for getting what we already have is bullshit. Like Andrew Furey begging Ottawa to let us control the seabed inside 12 miles even though we already did and then thanking his father’s buddies for the privilege of controlling only part of what we already owned. The rest Furey let the feds have for nothing.

The CBC CAF over by Generic Canadian University spit out a segment full of really crap-quality audio for On da Go Friday afternoon. Low quality content like John Hogan calling this the most important deal in our province’s history (it isn’t), one that “tears up” the 1969 deal - it doesn’t - and that is pretty much the same as the one Hogan and his buddy Andy Furey stood by as Francois Legault, the real master of our house, le real chef chez eux, announced in 2024. The rest of it was nonsense of all sorts, like a vote in the House of Assembly (not needed except for some fraud) or the impact of the Quebec election that were almost all as wildly wide of the mark - given what we actually know - as the other two-bit bits.

A staggering level of bullshit even for a place drowning in bullshit for 20 years.

This deal does not tear up 1969.

This deal continues it and all that is wrong with it.

Gives away the money-maker and all that goes with it for a few magic beans.

There is no such thing as magic beans.

There is only bullshit.

There can be no deal on the Lower Churchill without reparations for the 1969 Power Contract Danny Williams said in 2003 just before he started five years of secret talks to give Hydro-Quebec anything it wanted to partner on the Lower Churchill. No reparations. Not even a mention.

We want them to get a fair return for their investment were the words Kathy Dunderdale used to describe the offer.

But no Sir, she said, they would not take it.

Then Danny got pissed off that Quebec wanted no part of the deal.

Dunderdale described the Lower Churchill “piece” as a “win-win” for Hydro Quebec yet despite everything there was “no take up [from Hydro Quebec] on the proposal.”

Instead, HQ went on with other projects.

Danny got angry while in the steady drip-drip meetings with the majority owner of the Churchill Falls operating company, the minority partner carried on working away on the Newfies in suits from Sin Jawns as they had since 1975. Made them feel important. Made them feel like partners instead of marks. Rubes. Naifs. The first few might not have been but eventually the Newfs in suits were and they fell for the con, passed it on as their expert advice to their political masters. Power and control is all about the long game and Quebec plays the long game.

So while short-term Danny blustered and bungled into Muskrat Falls, the crowd from Montreal eventually started talking about a time after. About after 2041. Someone came up with the idea of giving the cash-strapped Newfies, now shagged up by the bluster and bungling of first Williams, then Dunderdale, then Paul Davis, then eventually Dwight Ball and then Furey over Muskrat Falls. After 2041. Renew 1969 after 2041. Of course we’d pay a higher fixed price. And we’d even give you some of that cash ahead of time now. Help pay those big bills. Hucksters call it “something for nothing.” It works.

Meanwhile, someone from Ottawa talked to Ball and his crew about mortgaging Churchill Falls to pay for Muskrat Falls. Bureaucrats working one way. Politicians working another angle. Talking first to Davis and then Ball. Denials of talks from the Newfie politicians even as they talked, when questions came after word leaked out from Quebec. They thought they were clever, that there was a big prize. But they were the prize and never saw it coming.

Eventually, Francois Legault whispered to Andrew Furey of an offer, which the young doctor, so out of his depth he could not even tell he was in water let alone under water, accepted on first hearing. Then Furey started talking about the Lower Churchill and Churchill Falls. Set up not one but two groups of advisors. An outside crowd and an inside crowd, the latter mostly from Newfie Hydro and run by his old buddy Brendan Paddick. A few ideas, one of which from the insider bunch and buddy Brendan was to get Hydro-Quebec to pay more than they do now for a renewal after 2041 but to give the Newfies some of the cash from after 2041 up front to help pay those big bills for Muskrat. Say they blended the two contracts together, make it look like the old one was gone, even though it was just really one extension of the original deal.

Even had a clever name for it for short.

Furey ignored all of their advice.

All of it.

Except for one idea.

Legault shows up.

Offers the One Idea.

Furey pretends he will think about it, as Legault comes to Sin Jawns in the grand gesture, playing on the Newfie ego, and talks of reparations when there would be none, of the Great Insult, which had not really been one. Furey does not think. Legault had Furey at hello so the young ‘un set up a small crew to make an agreement. Delivered the thing in 2024 right before Furey frigged off, just like Danny with Muskrat, on to what he really wanted all along.

Final agreements almost finished, Furey’s Dunderdale loses the election. The New Guy appoints a team of advisors on how to fix all that was wrong. Start again from scratch, they tell Wakeham. Have a strategy this time. And do proper oversight.

No, Tony says. My crowd are pretty happy with what’s there. We’ll do three tweaks instead and finish this one off. Even as recently as last week, reporters - Mainlanders and Newfies alike - said that Wakeham had rejected the ‘24 deal when he embraced it completely.

With this announcement today, all the problems of 2024 remain, which is to say all the problems of 1969 are still there.

Quebec controls it all. The financing. The plant. The production. Whether the new-builds go ahead. The only thing guaranteed to happen is the extension of 1969 on more or less the old terms.

For good measure, the Newfies agree to let Quebec buy all the electricity from Churchill the Newfies don’t use. Forget that since the late 90s, Newfie Hydro has been able to export surplus across Quebec and eventually started to sell into the spot market in New York. The stranglehold is broken, Danny Williams said when he announced the sales in Ought Nine.

A line so good he used it again in ‘Ten for Muskrat:

This is a day of great historic significance to Newfoundland and Labrador as we move forward with development of the Lower Churchill project, on our own terms and free of the geographic stranglehold of Quebec which has for too long determined the fate of the most attractive clean energy project in North America…

Today might be the Third Time Charm for all the great bullshit lines in that one sentence: great historic significance, on our own terms, and free of the geographic stranglehold. Watch for them.

The problems with the 2024 deal are simple:

• Quebec retains control of the project and future development of a project entirely in Newfoundland and Labrador and supposedly owned by Newfoundland and Labrador. The only thing guaranteed is the continuation of the 1969 contract principles. Everything else is up to Quebec.

• As in 1969, there is a fixed price at far below the market value of the electricity. The HQ leak, in La Presse says it cleanly. A price from now to 2041. A second price after 2041. If the ‘69 contract really were gone there’d be only one pricing scheme started already.

• Restoration of the Quebec Stranglehold. No sales outside Quebec for any surplus electricity from Newfoundland and Labrador, just like it used to be.

Tony’s Tweaks were simple:

• a bit more ‘lecky,

• a bit more money, and

• transmission.

What Tony got we know from La presse and AllNL. The rest of the Newfie media got leaks over the weekend but none of it was about the real stuff.

There is no more electricity. Just the promise of maybe more later, as the project unfolds, decided by Quebec. Maybe some wind. They are talking big numbers of megawatts instead of what is firm - which even the people writing the lines for the politicians and feeding them to media likely do not understand - but those big numbers are imaginary, might-happen numbers. They are using numbers to dazzle people in a province where two thirds cannot do math at a level needed to function in modern society, just like Furey did with his imaginary billions.

The bit more money is one penny per kilowatt hour. Two cents before 2041 only a smidge above the old offer of 1.6 cents, which was literally the 1969 contract price adjusted for inflation. After 2041, a flat rate of seven cents instead of the six - originally called 5.9 for show - and, as with Danny in 2005, you appear to get more money by changing a number slightly. No one talks about the more important stuff you gave up to get the one penny.

We got it, Danny said then, when he just said yes to less than he demanded. We didn’t get it, truth be told, but Danny did. Up the back passage. Roger didn’t get rogered at Voisey’s, but Danny did in Ottawa in ‘05.

We got it Tony will say, or words to that effect, when he didn’t either. Not a new deal. Not anything seriously bigger than before. An extra penny is trivial, but it is how Wakeham can claim $49 billion is better than the $36 billion mentioned in a report he otherwise ignored.

And everything since 1975 goes back to the way it was. Quebec functionally owns the plant. HQ and Newfie Hydro treat the plant not as a profit centre for the majority owners but as a jointly owned, equally owned generating plant. Split the electricity between them and pay as little as possible for it.

What HQ pays for electricity from Churchill Falls Newfie Hydro must pay too so the whole idea of getting them to pay more cannot work in the ownership scheme since 1975. The politicians have always known this, but they bullshit about it anyway. I have bullshitted for 50 years now. Only way to make more for Newfoundland and Labrador is to get HQ out and treat the plant as a profit centre for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Instead, the minority partner takes all but scraps of the electricity and the majority of the rent, which is the difference between the market value and the price paid at the mill gate.

And on transmission, a line that would be built when HQ wants it, covered off, as we already knew by the federal infrastructure fund. There will be talk of five projects as if there were not five or more in the original deal. All the talk of big and grand and wonderful and jobs and money and rebates is distraction in ‘26 as in ‘24. Just bullshit. No one will talk of the ring-fence, the stranglehold the Newfies agreed to wear again, the thing that makes capped transmission meaningless, but it will still be there because it is the only thing from HQ’s standpoint that makes sense.

Quebec is in control after all.

Control is power.

Power is what it is all about.

All the rest is bullshit.

There’ll be no referendum on this deal.

Tony Wakeham promised one.

“Given the generational stakes,” Wakeham told his victory-night crowd, with someone’s poor idea of clever writing as a lead-in phrase, “I will not sign any deal that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians do not approve in a referendum.”

Quebec does not want the risk of a referendum.

They want to lock the Newfies in.

So, Tony does not want the risk.

Tone will break his word.

Instead of a vote, you will get a couple of cents off your electricity for a little while. Who says they cannot buy you or at least try?

Every other report from Quebec about this has been dead-on right so far. There is no reason to doubt La Presse got that right that there will be no referendum since they got the facts from HQ.

Tony Wakeham has endless political problems. This one will add more. Wakeham has no more public support than Furey did and Furey had none. Tony knows that support for the ‘24 deal is weak at best. He watched the support plummet the more Furey talked.

Danny Williams sold people on Muskrat Falls, they went wilfully blind to its stupidity because they trusted him, the fools. MAGA’s got nothing on the Fan Klub.

Furey could not sell them hundreds of billions, as he put it. Tony has no good reason for people to buy the same deal in a new wrapper. No excuse people will buy, anyway.

Now he will sacrifice his reputation and his party’s political future to get this deal.

If the news Monday is for the final agreements they should be, the whole thing will be done. If there is anything in doubt, any loophole or room, then the deal will die under the new PQ government in Quebec. As it is, the PQ crowd could just shelve the whole thing, pass a law if need be nullifying the agreement, and then dare the Newfies to sue them for it, waste years in court for little or nothing as the province slides further toward the financial abyss.

Either way, Tony Wakeham will hobble his own party headed into its first re-election campaign for nothing.

A referendum could succeed. All Tony has to do is admit this deal is ‘24 with tweaks. That immediately kills the Liberals’ and the Dippers’ ability to oppose or even pretend to oppose anything about this deal. They would have to back him. Openly or with silence doesn’t matter. They already back this deal, as they did with Muskrat Falls, so there is no political force capable of organizing a No campaign in a referendum.

Tony Wakeham would have a cake-walk, as Brian Tobin did with the second education reform referendum. Except this time, the public is not already sold on this deal. They have not already moved beyond the hang-ups about this mess as they had with the sectarian divisions in their society that allowed an easy majority win for Tobin, without cracking a sweat. But still people would have to be really pissed off to go to the polls and vote No pretty much alone. Yes would still win.

With the path he’s chosen, Tony will get sniped at by the Liberals for signing their deal and for not being transparent and for being a liar. There’s no greater fraud than a promise not kept, someone once said. Some of those snipes will land, especially the Promise Broken Not Kept, even though by all accounts the Liberals have nothing either to make people rush to them. And so the Pea Seas will be weak going into the ‘29 General or the one before that if Tony follows the patterns and quits sooner. If things get really bad, even with a done deal, the Liberals could hound Tony from office.

A promise broken can haunt Wakeham. Haunt the Pea Seas.

Hypocrisy alone would not hurt them. Newfies love hypocrites, which is why John Hogan, part of the least transparent administration in this province’s post-Confederation history can accuse Wakeham of being opaque and no one calls Hogan out for being a hypocrite on top of being just lazy and arrogant.

Even Danny Williams will be silent. He could attack the Liberals just because they are Liberals and would have had they won last year. But even Danny will cheer this deal because it is a Pea Sea one, even though it is just ‘24 warmed up a bit. Did it with Voisey’s. Did it with offshore deals. Will do it again.

Danny will be Nigel Tufnell pointing to the deal that goes to 11 even though it is really just 10 slightly louder. Party comes before province for Danny even if he said something else once before. Ego comes before Party. Ego, ego über alles/wie bei Danny so auch bei Trump.

The Gang of Nine who have been slagging this deal, their ads already on social media, do not have the energy, oomph, are you sure?or money to organize a No campaign. The three political parties plus Danny would slaughter them in a referendum vote. But without a referendum, they can make life painful for the Pea Seas, especially if any of this deal announced on Monday is not copper-fastened and already beyond change. All the weaknesses are still there, too so they can wear the Pea Seas away slowly.

Like Andrew Furey, Tony Wakeham is not blessed with any political or comms advice from anywhere or anyone worth a damn. The Pea Seas are struggling like Dwight’s bunch or Kathy’s mob or Furey’s Brain Trust.

Forget the polls. All the polls we have in public mean nothing. All the Liberals need to do to is get rid of Hogan and clear out some of the cringier caucus cankers to give them enough of a refresh to make ‘29 or whenever a real contest. The Pea Seas in ‘25 are a good example of how small changes in key seats can swing election in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Tony Wakeham’s Pea Seas have finished the Liberal agenda they inherited in ‘25 as the Liberals finished the Pea Sea agenda they inherited a decade earlier. With this deal done, the Pea Seas have nothing else.

Literally, nothing.

And that is the bigger problem Tony Wakeham and his gang face once they get through, if they get through, whatever hell they will face from this deal if it survives the fall Quebec election.

Those ifs carry an enormous weight on two small letters.

Just think of the irony, though.

Quebec separatists could be the saviors of Newfoundland and Labrador if they kill this abomination, this continuation of every humiliation and indignity of the last 60 years because the Newfies were too stunned to do it for themselves with quiet (self-) confidence.