So many very knowledgeable people who have started comments on recent events with some words like "I never in my life imagined..." and then talk about how the Americans have simply failed to follow every single of the most basic principles of what a mature country ought to do.
The Iranians by contrast have been highly capable. They changed their organization, the leadership and how it works in response to the Israelis decapitation strikes on Hezbollah.
But fundamentally they understood the economic underpinnings of everything. They know their adversaries strengths and weaknesses and responded effectively. The Americans meanwhile are literally making it up as they go. Their weaknesses are on full display.
That makes countering them easier. But it is still a strategy. The only bit you have to wonder about on the other side - in this case it would Iran - is whether the blunders and incompetence you see are real and not just some clever ruse.
The Iranians got it right.
Some Canadians and some in Europe have not figured out yet that Trump 47 represents a fundamental change in the way things work. I initially didn;t think that way but I changed my mind. The US is now an aggressive adversary and, at best an untrustworthy ally. We have to deal with Americans for many reasons but what would have been easier 20 years go means we are much more cautious. If Trump disappeared tomorrow, things would still be a problem with the US.
You also have to allow that Americans generally, including the most well-informed (supposedly) have no idea what is going on in the world. Ignorance - fundamental lack of knowledge - is not merely widespread among ordinary folks. It is all-encompassing.
My earlier comment referenced a potential 500 MW on the grid reduction from high efficiency heating. I then went to use AI on this question who, off the bat, made 3 blunders on basic math and corrected their errors when pointed out (example while using half the kws input AI initially wrongly stated it would make the peak load peakier, instead of flattening it. When they corrected several errors its result was amazing that it came to 497 MW reduction, when using 75 % air source and 75 % ground source and the using industry certified COP for quality units. It gives an analysis that it can fully offset Holyrood thermal units production, and what the savings on fuel and maintenance is. But this results in less revenue, but there is many offsets for Nfld Hydro to compensate, and big saving over 20 years for a typical house, ranging from 40,000 to 80,000 dollars when optimised as to the type of installation method .
That Nfld Power would have reduced revenue of about 22 % and so would oppose this, Then it states how regulations should change as several other provinces now do. And that Nfld Power should be compensated to maintain their profit margin, and be based not on sales but efficiency for customers and demand reductions etc.
Interesting if Ed, or Doug May assessed the math and logic. Actually the loss of revenue would not be that great, as it frees up power and energy for the ability of more energy use for EV loads increasing etc.
I have a unit now operating for 16 years and monitored it showing excellent results, and presented the data to the PUB in 2012, and Nfld Power admitted it was exceptional good results, and the technology is now improved since then. However they still promote plastic on the windows, and such silly things for little impact,to protect their revenue.
This well written piece, I think, reflects some of Ed's military training and background. It seems an escalation in the war may also see the Red Sea closed or so risky as to shipping. 200 dollar a bbl oil may not be too far off. The economic fall out? A recession, stagflation, or a depression? We'll know more of the genius of Trump on April 6 or soon after. The "golden era of prosperity" for MAGA promised last April will shine soon......right on!
Hegseth, who wants all to pray for destruction of "the enemy, with maximum violence without mercy" supposedly that being a Christian way of dong things has of yesterday been countered by the American born pope, who says God don't listed to those types of prayers. Trump once posted a fabricated picture of himself wearing the popes garments. How will American Catholics take these contradictory views on religion, come voting time?
Meanwhile oil long term over 100 dollar a bbl, seems to be a big stimulant for renewable energy. Should this influence the thinking, or PUB approval of.......: more gas turbines for Holyrood? Speeding up of more island hydro and wind ? Rational and robust energy efficiency in NL similar to the Maritime provinces instead of being the worst in Canada? Create Grid Demand Reduction, by using EE treated as a power source as done in other jurisdictions? Help flatten the winter grid peak over a 10 year plan of conversion of wasteful resistance heaters by modern heatpump with efficiencies with COP of at least 2 in -15 C cold snaps to as much as COP of 5 at seasonal occasions. For all buildings if so converted in Nlld, gives a potential grid peak reduction of 500 MW or more, and little or much reduced need for fossil fuel burning and associated infrastructure (and allowing more export of electricity from the LIL). A possible bright side to sky high oil prices, that may never come down as expected? Ed mentions tectonic shifts.........maybe in more ways than imagined. But........not holding my breath that the old ways here will little change. So much hinges, on the muddled actions in the near future, of a US president suffering from an evil character and evil dementia, and few wanting, or able to stop him. The arse is gone right out of 'er, hey b'y. Maybe I should add a little something to my coffee.
Come back Wednesday when I'll talk a bit more about the timelines and the economic underpinnings of what is happening. I want to bring this closer to home at some point but to get there we've got to see the wider picture first.
What's curious about all the discussion is that the international analysis does not see Canada as a supplier. Well, that's a good thing in some respects. But it might make our own situation all the more important once people figure it out.
Meanwhile, we have a political leadership here of all colours and varieties that is working on the Paddy Daly problem so they are not even in the strategic game.
Basically, more to follow.
As for where this comes from... it's digging back into where I started 45 years ago and in some variation it's where I have been ever since. The particular situation shifts but the subject is the same. The grammar shifts but the logic behind it is where I am.
So many very knowledgeable people who have started comments on recent events with some words like "I never in my life imagined..." and then talk about how the Americans have simply failed to follow every single of the most basic principles of what a mature country ought to do.
The Iranians by contrast have been highly capable. They changed their organization, the leadership and how it works in response to the Israelis decapitation strikes on Hezbollah.
But fundamentally they understood the economic underpinnings of everything. They know their adversaries strengths and weaknesses and responded effectively. The Americans meanwhile are literally making it up as they go. Their weaknesses are on full display.
That makes countering them easier. But it is still a strategy. The only bit you have to wonder about on the other side - in this case it would Iran - is whether the blunders and incompetence you see are real and not just some clever ruse.
The Iranians got it right.
Some Canadians and some in Europe have not figured out yet that Trump 47 represents a fundamental change in the way things work. I initially didn;t think that way but I changed my mind. The US is now an aggressive adversary and, at best an untrustworthy ally. We have to deal with Americans for many reasons but what would have been easier 20 years go means we are much more cautious. If Trump disappeared tomorrow, things would still be a problem with the US.
You also have to allow that Americans generally, including the most well-informed (supposedly) have no idea what is going on in the world. Ignorance - fundamental lack of knowledge - is not merely widespread among ordinary folks. It is all-encompassing.
Is it difficult to strategize against someone who is inconsistent? Maybe you may not have to if they are destroying themselves.
My earlier comment referenced a potential 500 MW on the grid reduction from high efficiency heating. I then went to use AI on this question who, off the bat, made 3 blunders on basic math and corrected their errors when pointed out (example while using half the kws input AI initially wrongly stated it would make the peak load peakier, instead of flattening it. When they corrected several errors its result was amazing that it came to 497 MW reduction, when using 75 % air source and 75 % ground source and the using industry certified COP for quality units. It gives an analysis that it can fully offset Holyrood thermal units production, and what the savings on fuel and maintenance is. But this results in less revenue, but there is many offsets for Nfld Hydro to compensate, and big saving over 20 years for a typical house, ranging from 40,000 to 80,000 dollars when optimised as to the type of installation method .
That Nfld Power would have reduced revenue of about 22 % and so would oppose this, Then it states how regulations should change as several other provinces now do. And that Nfld Power should be compensated to maintain their profit margin, and be based not on sales but efficiency for customers and demand reductions etc.
Interesting if Ed, or Doug May assessed the math and logic. Actually the loss of revenue would not be that great, as it frees up power and energy for the ability of more energy use for EV loads increasing etc.
I have a unit now operating for 16 years and monitored it showing excellent results, and presented the data to the PUB in 2012, and Nfld Power admitted it was exceptional good results, and the technology is now improved since then. However they still promote plastic on the windows, and such silly things for little impact,to protect their revenue.
This well written piece, I think, reflects some of Ed's military training and background. It seems an escalation in the war may also see the Red Sea closed or so risky as to shipping. 200 dollar a bbl oil may not be too far off. The economic fall out? A recession, stagflation, or a depression? We'll know more of the genius of Trump on April 6 or soon after. The "golden era of prosperity" for MAGA promised last April will shine soon......right on!
Hegseth, who wants all to pray for destruction of "the enemy, with maximum violence without mercy" supposedly that being a Christian way of dong things has of yesterday been countered by the American born pope, who says God don't listed to those types of prayers. Trump once posted a fabricated picture of himself wearing the popes garments. How will American Catholics take these contradictory views on religion, come voting time?
Meanwhile oil long term over 100 dollar a bbl, seems to be a big stimulant for renewable energy. Should this influence the thinking, or PUB approval of.......: more gas turbines for Holyrood? Speeding up of more island hydro and wind ? Rational and robust energy efficiency in NL similar to the Maritime provinces instead of being the worst in Canada? Create Grid Demand Reduction, by using EE treated as a power source as done in other jurisdictions? Help flatten the winter grid peak over a 10 year plan of conversion of wasteful resistance heaters by modern heatpump with efficiencies with COP of at least 2 in -15 C cold snaps to as much as COP of 5 at seasonal occasions. For all buildings if so converted in Nlld, gives a potential grid peak reduction of 500 MW or more, and little or much reduced need for fossil fuel burning and associated infrastructure (and allowing more export of electricity from the LIL). A possible bright side to sky high oil prices, that may never come down as expected? Ed mentions tectonic shifts.........maybe in more ways than imagined. But........not holding my breath that the old ways here will little change. So much hinges, on the muddled actions in the near future, of a US president suffering from an evil character and evil dementia, and few wanting, or able to stop him. The arse is gone right out of 'er, hey b'y. Maybe I should add a little something to my coffee.
Come back Wednesday when I'll talk a bit more about the timelines and the economic underpinnings of what is happening. I want to bring this closer to home at some point but to get there we've got to see the wider picture first.
What's curious about all the discussion is that the international analysis does not see Canada as a supplier. Well, that's a good thing in some respects. But it might make our own situation all the more important once people figure it out.
Meanwhile, we have a political leadership here of all colours and varieties that is working on the Paddy Daly problem so they are not even in the strategic game.
Basically, more to follow.
As for where this comes from... it's digging back into where I started 45 years ago and in some variation it's where I have been ever since. The particular situation shifts but the subject is the same. The grammar shifts but the logic behind it is where I am.